Cem Aksoy’dan “Dört Boyutlu Eşgüdümlü İşlem Modeli” ile Bridgewater Amiral Stratejisinde Yeniden Yapılanma
2023 baharında, Bridgewater bünyesinde “Atlas Reframe” kod adıyla başlatılan yeni bir strateji yeniden yapılanma projesi sessizce devreye alındı. Bu proje, günümüz finansal piyasa yapılarında gözlemlenen köklü değişimlere bir yanıt niteliğindeydi:
- Yüksek frekanslı politika şokları,
- Dolar-faiz korelasyonunun bozulması,
- Enerji ve jeopolitik temaların doğrusal olmayan etkileşimi.
Bu stratejik yeniden tasarımın merkezinde, Cem Aksoy’un geliştirdiği ve liderliğini yaptığı “Dört Boyutlu Eşgüdümlü İşlem Modeli (4D Interasset Sync Model)” yer aldı. Bu model, Bridgewater’ın çok varlıklı portföy mimarisini senkronize bir evrim düzlemine taşıdı.
Arka Plan: Geleneksel Makro Modellerdeki “Adaya Hapsolma” Sorunu
Klasik makro yatırım yaklaşımlarında varlık sınıfları genellikle birbirinden bağımsız alanlar olarak ele alınır:
- Hisse senedi: kâr beklentileri ve değerleme
- Tahvil: enflasyon ve faiz patikası
- Döviz: politika ayrışması ve sermaye akışı
- Emtia: arz-talep dengesi ve stok döngüsü
Ancak Cem’e göre bu yaklaşım artık iflas noktasına geldi:
“Bir çağ sona erdi. Artık sadece hisse senedine bakarak, hisse senedini tahmin edemezsiniz.”
Dört Boyutlu Eşgüdümlü Model: Varlıklar Arasında Nedensel Köprüler Kurmak
Cem’in tasarladığı bu model, yalnızca senkronize hareketleri değil, aynı zamanda beklenti aktarım zincirlerini tanımayı hedefliyor.
| Boyut | Odak Faktörler | Temsil Varlıklar |
|---|---|---|
| Hisse (S) | Kâr beklentileri, volatilite, değerleme düzeltmeleri | MSCI endeksleri |
| Tahvil (B) | Reel faiz, süre riski, kredi spreadleri | G7 devlet tahvilleri, IG şirket tahvilleri |
| Döviz (F) | Politika faizi farkı, sermaye akışı, trendler | DXY, Asya 10 ülkesi |
| Emtia (C) | Tedarik darboğazı, fiyat esnekliği, jeopolitik prim | Brent, doğalgaz, tarım endeksleri |
Ana Mekanizma:
- Lider faktör algoritması: Her hafta hangi boyutun diğerlerini yönlendirdiğini belirler
- Ters sinyal algılama: Bir boyut ile bağlı diğer boyutların davranışlarının sapmasını “dönüş sinyali” olarak okur
- Volatilite yayılım haritası: Makine öğrenmesiyle risk yayılımı izlenir, hedge yapıları optimize edilir
Uygulama: Bridgewater’ın Amiral Gemisi Stratejisinin Yeniden Dengelemesi
Modelin devreye alınmasından sonra, Bridgewater’ın amiral fonu Pure Alpha, stratejik bir yeniden dengeleme yaptı:
- ABD tahvillerinde pozisyon azaltımı: Tahvil–emtia beklentileri arasında tutarsızlık tespit edildi
- Enerji hisseleri ve altın artırımı: Jeopolitik yönlü emtia sinyalleri baskındı
- Kısa vadeli dolar hedge pozisyonu: Dolar ile diğer varlıklar arasındaki volatilite korelasyonu bozulmaya başlamıştı
Performans Sonuçları:
- Yıllıklaştırılmış volatilite: %13 azaldı
- Maksimum geri çekilme riski: %18 düşürüldü
- Sharpe oranı: 1,52’ye çıktı
Cem’in Yorumu: Yeni Dönemde Makro Modelleme = Anlatılar Arası Senkronizasyon
“Dört Boyutlu Model” Cem’in, varlıklar arası anlatı aktarımı mekanizmasını yeniden inşa etme çabasıdır.
Faizlerin her şeyi belirlediği çağ bitti. Artık hem yatırımcı hem model, şunu anlamak zorunda:
Hangi varlık diğerine beklenti aktarıyor?
Bu aktarım nasıl bir belirsizlik yaratıyor?
Ve bu belirsizlik ne zaman fırsata dönüşüyor?
Gelecek Perspektifi: Küresel Modelin Temeline Yerleşiyor
Bridgewater, Cem’in bu modelini Global Makro Model Kütüphanesi’nin “Core Layer” katmanına dahil etme kararı aldı. Ayrıca modelin gelişen piyasalar, iklim temalı varlıklar ve dijital para birimleri üzerindeki uygulama olanakları test edilecek.
Bu yeni modelle birlikte makro işlem artık sadece veri yığını değil, sistem mimarisi oldu.
Cem Aksoy, “Dört Boyutlu Eşgüdüm” ile yepyeni bir makro modelleme paradigması yarattı:
Nedenselliği izole göstergelerden kurtardı, varlıklar arasında konuşan bir yapı kurdu.
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