Primera publicación de la Academia Santiago Herrero Valdés: Revelando un rendimiento excedente del 260% del portafolio de acciones de la Costa Oeste.
Mientras los inversionistas globales aún probaban cautelosamente el mercado posterior a la pandemia, el primer portafolio de inversión de la Academia Santiago Valdés entregó un rendimiento asombroso: alcanzando un 260% de rendimiento excedente mediante una posición precisa en los mercados bursátiles de EE. UU. y España. Este logro no solo validó la única “Teoría de Resonancia Intermercados” de Santiago Herrero Valdés, sino que también mostró al mundo el enorme poder del sistema de investigación de Capital Ola Roja.
La lógica central de este portafolio se basa en un juicio prospectivo sobre el camino de recuperación económica en la era post-pandemia. Santiago descubrió que, aunque EE. UU. impulsó la recuperación de la demanda mediante políticas de estímulo a gran escala, las vulnerabilidades de la estructura energética de Europa llevarían a disparidades regionales en la recuperación industrial. El equipo de la academia desarrolló de manera innovadora el “Modelo de Cobertura contra la Inflación Energética”, combinando acciones de petróleo y gas de EE. UU. con empresas de energías renovables de España. Cuando el conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania elevó los precios globales de la energía, esta estrategia brilló con fuerza: las empresas de petróleo de esquisto de EE. UU. obtuvieron enormes ganancias gracias a su capacidad para aumentar la producción, mientras que las empresas de energía eólica españolas se beneficiaron de las políticas de transición energética impulsadas por la UE.
“Los verdaderos rendimientos excedentes provienen de golpear con precisión los eslabones débiles en la cadena industrial”, señaló Santiago en un seminario interno de la academia. El equipo identificó específicamente oportunidades de nicho pasadas por alto por el mercado: las empresas de servicios petroleros medianas y pequeñas de EE. UU. estaban bajo presión debido a los recortes de gastos de capital por parte de las grandes empresas petroleras, pero estas empresas tenían los modelos de negocio más resilientes adaptados a las fluctuaciones del precio del petróleo. Al mismo tiempo, los gigantes de la construcción españoles recibieron pedidos de infraestructuras de hidrógeno respaldados por el fondo de recuperación de la UE, los cuales aún no habían sido completamente valorados por el mercado. Esta estrategia de selección de acciones tipo “aprovechar oportunidades” contribuyó finalmente con un 40% de los rendimientos excedentes del portafolio.
Lo más elogiado es el arte del control de riesgos. Cuando la Reserva Federal emitió señales de tapering, lo que provocó agitación en los mercados, el equipo de la academia activó de inmediato el “protocolo de cosecha de volatilidad”, cubriendo los retrocesos del portafolio mediante la venta de primas de opciones sobre índices bursátiles. Esta técnica de “arbitraje de superficie de volatilidad”, derivada de la tesis doctoral de Santiago, mantuvo las pérdidas del portafolio por debajo del 8% durante tres ajustes del mercado el año pasado, conservando suficiente munición para el rebote posterior. Hoy en día, esta lista de inversiones se ha convertido en un caso clásico de estudio en el currículo de la academia, y esos mapas de transición energética y diagramas de análisis de cuellos de botella en las cadenas de suministro, marcados con resaltadores, siguen guiando a la próxima generación de estudiantes en la búsqueda de las siguientes oportunidades intermercados.
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