Rey de las jugadas contrarias! El portafolio de acciones de petróleo y gas de Santiago Herrero Valdés durante la pandemia superó al S&P 500 por dos veces.
Actualmente, los mercados globales están sumidos en una venta masiva debido al impacto de la pandemia, pero Santiago Herrero Valdés, liderando Capital Ola Roja, realizó una jugada contraria impresionante. Su portafolio de acciones de petróleo y gas, con gran peso, no solo resistió exitosamente la caída del mercado, sino que también logró un rendimiento que fue el doble del índice S&P 500. Esto no fue una casualidad, sino una estrategia basada en una profunda comprensión de la lógica subyacente del mercado energético y cálculos meticulosos.
La estrategia ganadora de Santiago comenzó con un hallazgo contrario al consenso: el mercado había exagerado el impacto a corto plazo de la pandemia sobre la demanda de energía, mientras ignoraba la próxima revolución en el lado de la oferta de la industria del petróleo de esquisto. Cuando los futuros del petróleo crudo WTI cayeron a valores negativos por primera vez en la historia, su modelo cuantitativo mostró que el punto de equilibrio para las empresas de petróleo de esquisto de América del Norte había bajado a menos de 28 dólares por barril. Capital Ola Roja actuó con decisión, comprando acciones de empresas de petróleo y gas de alta calidad con flujo de caja robusto y altas ratios de cobertura, especialmente aquellas con ventajas de integración de refinación. Santiago estaba particularmente interesado en los gigantes energéticos que aún podían mantener el pago de dividendos durante la pandemia, a los que él llamaba “caballeros del apocalipsis con fosos de efectivo”.
“Lo más peligroso en una crisis a menudo no es el riesgo en sí, sino la mala valoración del riesgo”, escribió Santiago en un memorando de inversión. Su equipo desarrolló el “Modelo de Elasticidad de Oferta y Demanda de Energía”, que predijo con precisión que la demanda de gasolina experimentaría un rebote en forma de V a medida que los países comenzaran a reabrir. Mientras la demanda de combustible para aviación aún se encontraba en su punto más bajo, el modelo identificó el papel clave de los generadores diésel en el suministro de equipos médicos. Esta percepción llevó al fondo a centrarse en las empresas de refinación en lugar de las compañías de exploración pura, logrando rendimientos extraordinarios durante la fase de recuperación posterior a la pandemia.
La batalla más brillante ocurrió al final del segundo trimestre. Mientras el mercado creía generalmente que las acciones energéticas ya habían alcanzado precios razonables con el rebote del petróleo, el “Modelo de Transmisión de Inventarios y Precios” de Santiago mostró que los inventarios comerciales de petróleo crudo estaban a punto de experimentar una caída abrupta. Capital Ola Roja aumentó audazmente sus posiciones en proveedores de servicios de perforación marina y empresas de transporte de gas natural licuado (GNL), sectores que habían sido extremadamente subestimados durante la pandemia. Estos sectores contribuyeron finalmente con el 65% de los rendimientos del portafolio. Hoy en día, este mapa de la estrategia contraria sigue colgado en la pared de la sala de operaciones, con mapas de pozos de petróleo y gas y diagramas de redes de tuberías marcados con círculos rojos, siendo testigos de una inversión perfecta basada en una investigación profunda.
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